Obama at the Zenith

For those of you on a post-election high, I warn you: I am on a crusade to temper expectations.

There is unbridled enthusiasm in America. We've elected a transformational figure who will shepherd us from recent arrogance and provincialism to a new century of dignified American leadership in the world. President-Elect Obama represents a radically different vision from that of President Bush. Yet while having a vision is critical in a marketing, it often takes a back seat in execution. At the end of the day, campaigning and governing are two different things.

How much can Obama really change? Right now, there is tremendous inertia to pass a bloated bail-out package that does little to address the economic engine of the US: productivity, innovation, and middle-class wage growth. Second, can we really pull out of Iraq in 16 months? Can Obama risk region destabilization and losing the support of the military? He has to be bold and assert his authority, but at what risk?

Many will say that Obama's campaign was bold. In addition, he was a highly effective communicator, manager, and delegator. That should bode well for his presidency... False.

He will have far less control over his presidency than as he did as a candidate. At the end of the day, the presidency as an institution is checked by Congress, the Supreme Court, and significant external conditions, shocks, and crises.

Obama has already done well to appoint Rahm Emanuel as Chief of Staff in order to keep Congress in check. The Supreme Court represents a lesser threat.

However, when it comes to external shocks, economic conditions, and other crises, Obama is not battle tested. Responding to crises as a candidate is easy: you meet with your advisors, you find a way to pin the blame on your oponent or incumbent president, and you refine, or tweak your vision. You make a few extra speeches on the subject, and devote a little more time to it in your general stump speech. You scream from the mountain tops "Change is what we need", event though there is no clear blueprint for how to do it. President-Elect Obama will not be able to vote "Present" on difficult issues anymore.

Yes, this election was mind-blowing in several respects. To think that only four years ago, we re-elected a mindless dolt and now we have a brilliant, inspirational, and transformative figure. And the racial implications cannot be overlooked either. Only 150 years ago, the government sanctioned slavery and a mere 50 years ago, the government used firehoses to enforce segregation. Today, we've elected a black man as president. I take enormous pride in what we've done in this country by electing Barack Obama.

But the underlying connundrum and question remain: Campaigning is not governing. How will Obama respond once the honeymoon is over?